Who will replace Biden as the Democratic nominee?

[DallasFanForever]

Any major party nominee NOT named Trump or Biden would have a real shot here.

I give her credit for currently leading in those four swing states, especially her seemingly large leads in Minnesota and Michigan. I don’t think most experts expected her to gain this much momentum this fast.

 

[Frank Underwood]

The fact that Harris is a "novelty" is why I wanted a primary. People have a short memory. Harris needs another challenger like Tulsi Gabbard to show what she's all about.

In her ad, Harris pretends that Democrats aren't also pushing "chaos, fear, and hate." Harris's position as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee is literally the result of the chaos they caused by covering up Biden's mental decline until after the debate. When it comes to fear, the Dems have claimed that Trump is an existential threat for years. During Trump's presidency, they pushed Russia-gate and called Trump an illegitimate president. Lastly, there's hate. The Dems clearly loathe progressives and the working class even more than they loathe Trump. They sow division as much as Republicans with their censorship campaigns and shaming of anybody who challenges their narratives.

As for the rest of Harris's ad, everything she's offering to do for people is what Dems have been promising for eternity. At what point are we allowed to ask why none of this ever comes to fruition? Harris says Dems "choose freedom" such as "The freedom not just to get by, but get ahead. The freedom to be safe from gun violence. The freedom to make decisions about your own body. We choose a future where no child lives in poverty. Where we can all afford healthcare. Where no one is above the law. We believe in the promise of America and we're ready to fight for it." Of course, reality is much different. The Dems promised a living wage and the public option, and then abandoned both. They wag their finger at Republicans over gun violence, yet they haven't been able to solve it themselves. They say people should have control over their own body, but not if they reject an experimental injection. They claim to care about the rule of law, yet they elevate and support war criminal politicians. As per usual, their promises are a smokescreen.

There's a parody version of Harris's ad online that's causing a stir because it uses Harri's real voice. It's obviously satire, but it's also much more truthful than the real Harris ad:

 

[Seaviewer]

I give her credit for currently leading in those four swing states, especially her seemingly large leads in Minnesota and Michigan. I don’t think most experts expected her to gain this much momentum this fast.

It's natural for there to have been a bounce in the immediate wake of the change of candidate. We'll have to wait to see how much that might dissipate over time.

 

[DallasFanForever]

It's natural for there to have been a bounce in the immediate wake of the change of candidate. We'll have to wait to see how much that might dissipate over time.

Which it very well could. Let’s face it, with over three months to go I’m sure there are still going to be a lot of twists and turns. The thing I’ve learned about elections in recent years is nothing is predictable anymore.

 

[CeeCee72]

So, I think it's fair to say that Trump has a BAD day yesterday.

Republicans had a plan to combat Harris's bump in the polls - focus on immigration and her votes as Senator. It was all going very well until Trump opened his mouth.

MAGA may cheer his divisive rhetoric regarding race and gender, but the moderate voters are pure sick of it.

For the life of me, I can't understand why the Trump campaign is so focused on riling up the 1/3 of Americans who worship him and ignoring the moderates they need to win the election.

 

[Frank Underwood]

Trump was much more strategically competent in 2016. He used the electoral college to his advantage by campaigning to the disaffected working class in the swing states.

For whatever reason, he lost his touch in 2020. He called Biden a "Trojan horse for socialism." Not only was that blatantly untrue, but only right wingers fear socialism.

Now Trump and Vance are leaning into race and gender, which is Trump's dumbest move yet IMO. He doesn't seem to realize that he's playing right into their hands.

I still believe Trump and Harris are both lousy choices, but messaging is vital. Harris is at least giving lip service to issues people care about, which could give her the win.

 

[tommie]

For the life of me, I can't understand why the Trump campaign is so focused on riling up the 1/3 of Americans who worship him and ignoring the moderates they need to win the election.

Yup. It's actually stunning how bad he is at strategy - it's obvious now that they never wanted "Sleepy Joe" to actually forfeit as they seem to have vetted Trumpf or any strategy with Kamala. He's actually doing horrifically badly right now and choosing Vance as a VP is only pushing him further to right and away from those centrist votes he needs. A lot can still happen in three months, but right now it's looking more promising for a Democrat win.

As for why Trump is pandering exclusively to the MAGA crowd? Narcissism. They give him the unquestioned adulation he craves, but they seriously scare away moderates.

Still, whoever manages not to self-immolate before election day...

 

[Frank Underwood]

Harris's supporters are not above some cringe identity politics of their own:

“Influencer” Tells White Women: “Never Correct Black People!”

CRINGE! White Men Celebs Embrace Identity Politics & Kamala Harris!

 

[tommie]

Harris's supporters are not above some cringe identity politics of their own:

“Influencer” Tells White Women: “Never Correct Black People!”

CRINGE! White Men Celebs Embrace Identity Politics & Kamala Harris!

Yeah, but that's sort of par on course with the cringe you expect from politicians. It's like when people complain she's utilising her "black identity" - so? We expect that from politicians.

The issue for Trump is that he's seemingly living in his own bubble at the moment where he just seems to pander to MAGAs, Catholics and far-right.

 

[Frank Underwood]

Yeah, but that's sort of par on course with the cringe you expect from politicians. It's like when people complain she's utilising her "black identity" - so? We expect that from politicians.

The issue for Trump is that he's seemingly living in his own bubble at the moment where he just seems to pander to MAGAs, Catholics and far-right.

Okay, but should it be expected? If the Dems really care about unity, why make race and gender a focal point? Shouldn't they focus on our common interests Instead?

I don't disagree that Trump's dumb for being myopic, but a group of insufferably smug white people virtue signaling isn't endearing either. I'd prefer they all stick to the issues.

Even Harris used the stereotype of smoking pot because "Half of my family is from Jamaica." Harris's own father was ashamed of her for that.

 

[Seaviewer]

Trump's trying to back out from debating her now. Technically he's right that with Biden out the agreement is now void but the fact that he wants to change the rules makes its own statement. I think see why he prefers the town hall format, though. If I'm not mistaken that was the format for the one in which he prowled around the stage behind Hillary Clinton in that unnerving way, but I don't think it will work a second time.

 

[tommie]

Trump's trying to back out from debating her now. Technically he's right that with Biden out the agreement is now void but the fact that he wants to change the rules makes its own statement. I think see why he prefers the town hall format, though. If I'm not mistaken that was the format for the one in which he prowled around the stage behind Hillary Clinton in that unnerving way, but I don't think it will work a second time.

The Democrats are essentially turning the table on the Republicans / Trump who focused on making Biden look incompetent and too weak to hold a debate. It's interesting to see. At this point, I'm not sure what Trump would gain in debating Kamala. Despite Kamala being a weak debater, she doesn't actually have to be strong - she just don't have to be confused and needs to stick to firm talking points / simple messaging while letting Trump go on one of his increasingly incoherent rants.

 

[CeeCee72]

I mean, race wouldn't be an issue right now if Trump hadn't made it one. The dumbest thing anybody his advisors could possibly do was to put him in front of those black journalists. They should have known he wouldn't be able to control himself. It was a huge gift the the Harris campaign.

And honestly, at this point, Trump would be an idiot to debate her at all. There's nothing to gain and everything to lose. He's too easy to goad into making nasty and incoherent attacks.

 

[Frank Underwood]

Oh please, the Dems have always hidden behind identity politics. Trump foolishly took the bait, but the Dems use identity as a shield against policy-based critiques as well.

As for the debate, Trump is playing into Harris's hands once again. By trying to change the format and venue, he appears fearful of the terms he originally agreed to.

That said, Harris isn't great at extemporaneous responses. People seem to think Harris will easily defeat Trump in a debate, but I still say she'll need a lot of prep beforehand.

 

[Frank Underwood]

Here's the latest example of Harris giving a word salad response. Biden's by her side and looks completely out of it. Harris appears to be the de facto president now.

Biden Completely ZONED OUT While Kamala Babbles On!

 

[CeeCee72]

I don't think Harris has to do well to beat Trump in a debate. I think all she has to do is goad him into nasty attack - on her, or any of the other groups he likes to target with his rhetoric.

As for identity politics, Dems do hide behind them. But Trump was the first one to bring race to the forefront of THIS race.

 

[Frank Underwood]

I don't think Harris has to do well to beat Trump in a debate. I think all she has to do is goad him into nasty attack - on her, or any of the other groups he likes to target with his rhetoric.

Yeah, that would be her best bet.

As for identity politics, Dems do hide behind them. But Trump was the first one to bring race to the forefront of THIS race.

Yes, but that's what I meant when I said he took the bait. He was asked if he thought she was only on the ticket because she's a black woman before going off on his rant.

The funny thing is Jim Clyburn admitted he urged Biden to choose a black woman for his VP, and Clyburn's endorsement helped Biden clinch the nomination.

Trump should have just pointed that out instead of questioning Harris's heritage.

 

[CeeCee72]

The funny thing is Jim Clyburn admitted he urged Biden to choose a black woman for his VP, and Clyburn's endorsement helped Biden clinch the nomination.

Trump should have just pointed that out instead of questioning Harris's heritage.

Yes. That's what he should have done. But he just can't help himself - he has to be ugly.

The thing that baffles me about this particular gaff is that normally when Trump does something so incredibly offensive or stupid, his campaign goes into clean up mode and tries to convince us he didn't mean what he said - but this time they are all doubling down on it.

 

[Frank Underwood]

The timing of this particular endorsement at a Trump rally is certainly interesting:

 

[CeeCee72]

The timing of this particular endorsement at a Trump rally is certainly interesting:

It's a waste of time for Trump to keep trotting out the few black "celebrities" who are willing to endorse him. Black voters aren't moved to vote by Beyonce and LeBron. They seriously aren't going to be moved by this lady and Amber Rose. The only value in celebrity endorsements is the cash they can raise and the young people they can motivate. Frankly, this particular "endorsement" reaks of desperation. It 's like Trump is screaming, "I can't be a racist because I have a black friend!"