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The US 2016 Election Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="SueEllenRules!" data-source="post: 19788" data-attributes="member: 87"><p><strong><span style="font-size: 22px">Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the Senate</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong><em>The Upshot’s elections model suggests that the Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate, based on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/senate-polls.html" target="_blank">the latest state and national polls</a>.</em></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong><span style="font-size: 15px">State-by-State Probabilities</span></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="font-size: 15px">To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model calculates win probabilities for each Senate race. In addition to 353 state polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling:</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Wisconsin</strong> - Russ Feingold has an 87 percent chance to take over Ron Johnson's (R) Senate seat.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Indiana</strong> - Evan Bayh has a 62 percent chance to take over retiring Senator Dan Coats' (R) seat.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>New Hampshire</strong> - Maggie Hassan has a 57 percent chance to take over Kelly Ayotte's (R) Senate seat.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Nevada</strong> - Catherine Cortez-Masto has a 56 percent chance to take over retiring Senator Harry Reid's (D) seat.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Pennsylvania</strong> - Kathleen McGinty has a 55 percent chance to take over Pat Toomey's (R) Senate seat.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>North Carolina</strong> - Currently leaning toward the Republican incumbent but still competitive.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Missouri</strong> - Currently leaning toward the Republican incumbent but still competitive.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px">Retaining Harry Reid's seat and obtaining a net gain of 4 Republican seats will give the Democrats a total of 50 seats in the Senate. Since the Vice President breaks ties in the Senate, the election of Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton's running mate would give Democrats control of the Senate.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-size: 15px">How Other Forecasts Compare</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px">The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some use statistical models; others rely on reporting and experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets. We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for easy comparison:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>New York Times</strong> - 60% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>FiveThirtyEight</strong> - 64% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Huffington Post</strong> - 80% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>PredictWise</strong> - 66% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Princeton Election Consortium</strong> - 70% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>Daily Kos</strong> - 65% Democratic</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html</a></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SueEllenRules!, post: 19788, member: 87"] [B][SIZE=6]Democrats have a 60% chance of winning the Senate[/SIZE][/B] [SIZE=4][B][I]The Upshot’s elections model suggests that the Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate, based on [URL='https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/senate-polls.html']the latest state and national polls[/URL].[/I][/B] [B][SIZE=4]State-by-State Probabilities[/SIZE][/B] [SIZE=4]To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model calculates win probabilities for each Senate race. In addition to 353 state polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling: [B]Wisconsin[/B] - Russ Feingold has an 87 percent chance to take over Ron Johnson's (R) Senate seat. [/SIZE] [B]Indiana[/B] - Evan Bayh has a 62 percent chance to take over retiring Senator Dan Coats' (R) seat. [B]New Hampshire[/B] - Maggie Hassan has a 57 percent chance to take over Kelly Ayotte's (R) Senate seat. [B]Nevada[/B] - Catherine Cortez-Masto has a 56 percent chance to take over retiring Senator Harry Reid's (D) seat. [B]Pennsylvania[/B] - Kathleen McGinty has a 55 percent chance to take over Pat Toomey's (R) Senate seat. [B]North Carolina[/B] - Currently leaning toward the Republican incumbent but still competitive. [B]Missouri[/B] - Currently leaning toward the Republican incumbent but still competitive. Retaining Harry Reid's seat and obtaining a net gain of 4 Republican seats will give the Democrats a total of 50 seats in the Senate. Since the Vice President breaks ties in the Senate, the election of Tim Kaine as Hillary Clinton's running mate would give Democrats control of the Senate. [/SIZE] [B][SIZE=4]How Other Forecasts Compare[/SIZE][/B] [SIZE=4]The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some use statistical models; others rely on reporting and experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets. We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for easy comparison: [B]New York Times[/B] - 60% Democratic [B]FiveThirtyEight[/B] - 64% Democratic [B]Huffington Post[/B] - 80% Democratic [B]PredictWise[/B] - 66% Democratic [B]Princeton Election Consortium[/B] - 70% Democratic [B]Daily Kos[/B] - 65% Democratic [URL]http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html[/URL][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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