Only Ukrainian people get to decide when the war ends.
The GDP of Ukraine is only $180 billion, which allows for a $5 billion military budget. Its current annual spending on military equipment is however more in the 40 billion range and rising. Given the scale of its military needs (not to mention humanitarian aid or damage caused doubling these figures), Ukraine is therefore highly dependent on Western help.
The combined budget of 32 NATO countries is close to $1.5 trillion, though less than 0.5 comes from 31 of them, whereas the United States accounts for almost 1 trillion (since its GDP is about 30 trillion — plus it pays a greater percentage than almost every other country, a sore point for Trump). So, it is more accurate to say the United States as the principal spender of NATO mostly gets to decide how long the war lasts.
As I said, the battle lines have barely changed in the past 3 years, except the Russians recently scoring another 1% of Ukrainian territory on top of the 18-19 they secured back in 2022. There has been no indication the Ukrainians are able push the Russians out.
In fact, just this weekend the Russians pushed the Ukrainians out of a small portion of Russian territory that the Ukrainians occupied last year in an attempt to use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. Forbes reports, while retreating, the Ukrainians were forced to leave behind some of the best weapons donated by the US, now seized by the Russians.
A prolonged war has so far only benefited Putin and we haven’t seen evidence to the contrary that the more a peace agreement is delayed, the more land concessions Ukraine will ultimately have to make. Not to mention more Ukrainians will have died and more Western taxpayers’ money will have been wasted.
Obviously, the longer the war, the greater the cost also to Russia in terms of casualties, economic sanctions, and international isolation. Putin’s long-term strategy seems focused on exhausting Ukraine and undermining Western resolve, but the balance of power could shift negatively for him as the war progresses.
He has however shifted Russian economy to Asian markets which seem to be happy to buy from him. Not to mention the EU continues to buy Russian fossil fuels and will not be phasing them out till 2027 at the earliest. And Europe has also been buying Indian oil, refined from Russian crude. So, the EU taxpayers’ money continues to directly or indirectly line Russian pockets and finance both sides in the never-ending conflict.